EM FX Macro

USD: The Truths Hurt

In this note, I’ll discuss the USD bounce - which I see as a lull that led to a position unwind.Sabotaging the USD revisited - I review the bear case…

Aug 17 • 

Stephen Elgie

7

1

May 2025

Three-Body Macro Chaos

Markets aren’t orbiting one dominant force anymore. They’re caught in a system with no stable solution. Trump, tariffs, and a fraying US narrative have…

May 26 • 

Stephen Elgie

6

April 2025

PAXXIT

The end of US leadership has consequences beyond the costs of tariffs

Apr 13 • 

Stephen Elgie

8

1

March 2025

Sabotaging the US Dollar

Is the Trump administration calling time on a 14 year uptrend?

Mar 8 • 

Stephen Elgie

8

2

January 2025

Not a 2025 Outlook, just the inaugural note of the year.

Twin policy uncertainties in the US and China leave the path unclear for EM.

Jan 25 • 

Stephen Elgie

2

November 2024

Red Wave washes over Emerging Markets

Emphatic Trump victory delivers further headwinds to a beleaguered asset class.

Nov 16, 2024 • 

Stephen Elgie

5

October 2024

EMFX Macro - Brighter horizons for EM

Lower core rates and China stimulus improve the medium term outlook for EM FX.

Oct 4, 2024 • 

Stephen Elgie

5

August 2024

EMFX Macro Mid-Year Review

Are we at a tipping point in this market regime? In this note, I work through my perspective on the recent regime for EMFX and opine on whether we are…

Aug 9, 2024 • 

Stephen Elgie

3

January 2024

EMFX Macro – 2024 Update

12th Jan 2024

Jan 15, 2024 • 

Stephen Elgie

8

1

August 2023

China; the end of an era leaves EMFX fragile

Pessimism over China is in full flow, while this might produce a tactical opportunity in EMFX, We might reasonably fear some unintended consequences. If…

Aug 25, 2023 • 

Stephen Elgie

3

Turbulence and opportunity in EMFX

Surfing the waves – the recent sell-off in EMFX brings opportunities

Aug 11, 2023 • 

Stephen Elgie

July 2023

EM FX Macro: H2 Outlook - US Goldilocks and the China bears

28th July 2023

Jul 28, 2023 • 

Stephen Elgie